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July 4 EST: Despite a dramatic upswing in equity fund inflows, Europe’s IPO engine has stalled in 2025, with market watchers pointing to a volatile cocktail of tariff turbulence and geopolitical shockwaves that have pushed dealmakers to the sidelines.
A Historic IPO Slump Amid Surging Capital Inflows
The numbers tell a stark story: just 44 IPOs launched in the EMEA region during the first half of 2025, raising only $5.5 billion, according to data compiled by Reuters and The Wall Street Journal. That’s a near-60% drop in capital raised compared to the same period in 2024 — a collapse not seen since the pandemic-era freeze.
By contrast, European equity funds have drawn in over $100 billion this year — a threefold increase from 2024, marking the second-highest level of inflows this century. The capital is flowing — just not toward newly public companies.
Geopolitics and Tariffs Cast a Long Shadow
Behind the IPO drought lies a deeper unease. The Biden administration’s April tariffs, introduced amid escalating trade tensions, were briefly rolled back after corporate backlash but still linger over transatlantic commerce. Simultaneously, ongoing volatility in the Middle East, particularly the unresolved Israel–Iran conflict, continues to cloud risk forecasts.
“The pipeline hasn’t dried up — it’s frozen,” said Stéphane Boujnah, CEO of Euronext, in an interview with Financial News. “Uncertainty in U.S. trade policy is the single most disruptive variable for European listings right now.”
The ripple effects are visible: Brainlab, Stada, Autodoc, and Cobalt Holdings are among the high-profile names that have either postponed or shelved their IPOs altogether.
Market Confidence Wavers Despite Liquidity
While cash is flooding into Europe, much of it is flowing to large-cap stalwarts, not newcomers. Analysts say this underscores investor wariness over IPO pricing and post-debut performance — a wariness validated by Douglas AG’s recent stumble, where the German retailer’s IPO underwhelmed and the stock dipped sharply in its opening weeks.
Advisors describe a pervasive “pricing hangover” from the spring tariff shocks, which triggered a repricing of risk across European markets. And with IPO valuations already stretched by 2024’s rate cuts, few underwriters are willing to push the envelope.
“There’s no appetite for aggressive pricing anymore,” said one Frankfurt-based ECM banker, speaking on background. “Investors want clean balance sheets, resilient margins, and minimal geopolitical exposure.”
Late-Year Hopes Hang on Stability
Still, there’s cautious optimism that H2 2025 could see a rebound — if, and only if, macro stability returns. A shortlist of late-summer IPOs is already forming, with Stada, Ottobock, Swiss Marketplace, and ISS Stoxx preparing for possible launches.
These aren’t just any listings — they’re bellwether offerings that could test investor appetite under pressure. And in a climate where deal readiness is as critical as market timing, only the most disciplined issuers may make it through.
A recent whitepaper from AInvest emphasized that “IPO success in this climate hinges on fundamental strength and external shock resilience — not hype.”
Global IPO Picture: EMEA Hit Hardest
Globally, IPO markets are mixed. Asia-Pacific saw a 28% increase in volume through June, buoyed by stability in key Chinese sectors. The U.S. declined 12%, while EMEA plummeted by 64%, raising just $5.8 billion YTD, per Reuters.
This disparity underscores Europe’s unique exposure to policy-driven volatility — especially from the U.S. and Middle East — and its relatively low tolerance for uncertainty in IPO valuations.
The Road Ahead: Quiet Summer, Cautious Fall
The IPO market in Europe isn’t broken. It’s waiting. Waiting for calmer waters, more consistent signals from Washington, and, perhaps, a geopolitical ceasefire or two.
Until then, Europe’s equity boom will remain a paradox: record inflows, but a barren IPO field.
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