President Joe Biden wants all Americans to be eligible for a shot by 1 May, while the country is on a more normal path by 4 July. He could have been too modest. Vaccine production rates and real-time data show that things are moving faster.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 19 percent of Americans and 62 percent of those above 65 were vaccinated with at least one dose. The result, combined with a declining number of Covid-19 cases, percolates in the economy and reinvigorates activity in areas that are severely affected by frightening consumers.
Take a plane trip. Air travel. Air travel. The U.S. Transportation Security Administration is monitoring airport security passengers. Last April, by 2019, the volume was less than 5%. It went back to about 45 percent on Wednesday. This is 10% higher than it was a month ago.
The crowded restaurants are telling a similar storey. OpenTable data shows that diners sitting on Tuesday were down 46% in the United States from the same date in 2019. A month ago, the figure fell by 59%. And TomTom traffic reports have shown increasing congestion in American cities, ranging from New York to Los Angeles, over the last few weeks.
Now, according to Breakingviews, Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson estimate that they will produce enough additional shots to vaccinate 100% of the US population by the end of June. Biden may set targets that are not too difficult to achieve – a departure from his predecessor, who predicted that the country could return to normal by April last.
While bond investors have attracted a resuscitation economy with ten-year treasury income at a 52-week rate, resulting in increased inflationary pressures, some Wall Street analysts may also be behind the curve. Despite the steady demand for flights and holidays, analysts believe that Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines and JetBlue Airways will not be able to recover by 2019 by 2022 until the latter half, and Carnival and Hilton Worldwide by 2023. Maybe you’re in for a great surprise.
