It finally feels like we’re getting closer to the end of the pandemic. Every day, millions of people are vaccinated, cases are declining, and people who have been vaccinated can safely gather in small groups.
In a speech on Thursday, President Joe Biden also stated that by May 1, all Americans would be eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine, potentially allowing for a more normal Fourth of July celebration. After a long, dark year of the coronavirus pandemic, the announcement brought with it a ray of hope.
This does not necessarily imply that everyone in the country will roll up their sleeves on that particular day. The general public may begin scheduling appointments as early as early May, but it will most likely take several months to work through the entire population.
So, what exactly does this announcement imply? You should be aware of the following:
More people are trained in shooting and more vaccine sites are opening.
The vaccine roll-out has been sticky to date — it is difficult to secure a date and supply throughout the country is still tight. Emergency physician Daniel Fagbuyi, who served in the Obama administration as a biodefense expert, said that the country needs more supplies, staff and space for the aspirant goal of opening vaccinations to everyone by 1 May.
The Biden administration plans to deploy troops to maximise vaccination efforts, and to administer shots and vaccines will be requested by other health care professionals — including dentists, veterinarians and optometrists. The country will also need to open more vaccination sites, some of which should be open 24/7, to make easy access to the vaccine for those who are leaving work at unusual times.
“It’s a kind of wartime reaction,” Fagbuyi said. “You will pull all the stops and leave no stone unturned.”
The time limit indicates confidence that the supply of vaccines will increase as it stands.
Amesh Adalja, a senior scientist at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security and an expert in infectious diseases, expects to have a significant increase in the supply of vaccine in May, especially when the one-dose shot-ramping ramps are distributed.
The country is currently struggling with supply constraints, which means we do not have enough doses to vaccinate all the people who want the shot. Adalja said that he expects us to tackle the opposite question in summer.
“We will try to persuade people to come and get vaccinated,” Adalja said.
The May 1 deadline does not mean that everybody gets a shot. Terms could, in reality, be more widely available by June.
All this assumes that everything goes according to the rollout plans. Fagbuyi said that we should give the plan realistically some room to figure out the kinks within 30 to 45 days of 1 May’s initial date.
So, when will we get to the point where a vaccine appointment is not so complicated for the general public? Sometime in June, Fagbuyi predicts.
It also takes time to work through the rest of the population — millions of people are not vaccinated overnight. “There will not be appointments, such as 2 May,” said Adalja, noting that some areas may still be working in other priority groups.
Depending on where you live, the summer (and 4 July target) will look different.
Each area has its own progress and vaccine roll-out restrictions. Some states, like Florida, Mississippi and Texas, have lifted restrictions and celebrations probably don’t feel distinct from previous days of independence on the 4th day of July.
Limited countries like New York and California are likely to lift the capacity limitations on smaller open-air rallies, Adalja said. Mass meetings, however, are likely to remain off the table.
Adalja predicts that vulnerables will be vaccinated in every country by the fourth of July and that there will be no more hospital capacity concerns.
We still have to be cautious and vigilant, however. There will be a sense of relief, but Fagbuyi warned it was not the time to drop your guard. Life is not totally back to pre-pandemic normality — remember that after being fully vaccinated it takes a couple of weeks for immunity to develop. New variants will also have to be examined.
“Pick the chance, but be careful and see what’s going on around you,” Fagbuyi said.
COVID-19 is not (or will ever) likely to disappear this summer, but experts are not concerned.
We often hear doctors saying that 70% of the population, through vaccination, natural inflammation, or pre-existing immunity, are immune to COVID-19. Each dose in someone’s arm makes spreading the virus more difficult.
But Adalja said putting all of our attention on herd immunity assumes that cases of coronavirus will eventually be zero – something that doctors do not expect from infectious diseases.
“I think it’s important to ensure that vulnerable populations are vaccinated so that the COVID loses the ability to cause severe disease, hospitalisation and death,” said Adalja.
The aim of the vaccination campaign is to “decapture the virus,” so COVID-19 is no longer a life-threatening disease and much more like a sniffer case. The vaccines are capable of doing this, even with current variants.
“The vaccines are extremely successful even in the face of these variants in stopping severe illnesses,” said Adalja.
We don’t want cases to fall — we want hospitalizations to collapse.
“Long before we get to herd immunity, I believe we will get there,” Adalja said. “In fact, we are already starting to get there.”
COVID-19 is still being learned by experts. The information in this story is what has been known or published, but guidance can change as scientists discover more about the virus. Review the most updated recommendations in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
