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New York, July 4 EST: Oil is sliding again, and this time the reasons are less about shock and more about slow burns: rising output, fading demand, and policy silence where markets could really use clarity.
Brent closed at $68.20 a barrel, down 0.8%. WTI followed, settling at $66.41, also down nearly a percent. The selloff isn’t dramatic, but it’s deliberate—and it comes with eyes wide open.
OPEC+ Keeps Opening the Taps
OPEC+ is planning to increase output again—411,000 barrels per day in August. It’s the group’s fifth hike this year. They’ve moved up their meeting to July 5–6, a possible tell that internal alignment isn’t quite locked in, or that they want to front-run market reaction.
Either way, traders aren’t buying what they’re selling. The market has already priced in most of the increase—and doesn’t seem to think demand can keep up. U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels last week, and China’s factory and services data barely moved the needle. That’s not the backdrop you want when supply is ramping.
The Tariff Clock Is Ticking
Markets haven’t forgotten about July 9, the day a 90-day U.S. pause on new China tariffs expires. No one’s sure what comes next. If Washington reinstates duties—especially on industrial inputs—it could shave demand forecasts across energy-intensive sectors.
The uncertainty is worse than a decision either way. It’s frozen sentiment just as the market needs direction. Energy desks are hedging for volatility, not volume.
Middle East Ceasefires Deflate the Risk Premium
Earlier this summer, oil briefly surged on fears of escalation between Israel and Iran. But that’s cooled. Ceasefires have held. Tankers are moving. The premium traders baked into prices has now evaporated—and with it, one of the few props holding oil above $70.
Not a Panic—Just a Grind
This isn’t 2020. There’s no freefall. But it is a stall. With no upside drivers and a constant drip of bearish indicators, crude is leaking value. It’s death by attrition—low-vol, high-caution, and entirely explainable.
| Forecast | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Short-term | Markets will watch the July 5–6 OPEC+ meeting and July 9 tariff decision for direction. |
| Medium-term | Without a demand surprise or supply pullback, Brent could slip into the low $60s. |
| Long-term | The structural floor is solid, but upside looks capped until China re-accelerates. |
What Traders Are Saying—By How They’re Not Trading
The smartest money right now isn’t chasing anything. Futures volume is light. Open interest is thinning. No one wants to get caught wrong-footed ahead of two major headlines and no liquidity. It’s summer, it’s thin tape, and energy markets are acting accordingly.
Oil isn’t tanking. But it’s not rallying either. It’s drifting—because the market’s got all the data it needs, and no conviction to match it.
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