Powell Speech Today: Fed Rate Cut in Focus, Markets on Edge
Jerome Powell’s remarks could reshape rate cut expectations as investors brace for Fed’s September decision.
New York, September 17 EST: The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver its first rate cut of 2025 this afternoon, a modest 25 basis points that could matter less for the move itself than for what Jerome Powell signals about the road ahead.
Wall Street On Edge
Trading desks came in tense Wednesday. The S&P 500 slipped in early moves, tech names gave back gains, and Nvidia cooled after its record-setting run. Everyone’s playing the same waiting game: what Powell says about the direction of cuts over the next three months.
For the Fed, the challenge is threading a needle that markets know all too well. Inflation has eased closer to target, but job growth, while slower, has not broken down. Cut too little and Powell risks accusations of staying tight for too long. Cut too much and the Fed risks loosening credit conditions just as households are proving they can still spend.
Parsing The Dot Plot
The most telling document may not be Powell’s script but the Fed’s updated dot plot, the scatter of policymakers’ rate projections. If it shows multiple cuts penciled in before year’s end, markets will read that as an opening for risk assets. If it suggests only a cautious step down, the Fed is signaling it wants more proof before committing to a cycle.
Traders will parse every word of Powell’s press conference the way analysts pore over earnings calls, looking not just at the headline numbers but the hesitation in his tone, the phrasing around inflation, the framing of labor slack.
Politics Creeps In
Complicating the backdrop is Donald Trump’s renewed offensive against Powell. As Politico reported, Trump has blamed high rates for choking growth, setting up a collision between the Fed’s supposed independence and a political class eager to pin blame for an uneven recovery.
For Powell, that means every move now carries a political charge. Cutting too quickly could look like caving to pressure. Staying firm risks inflaming criticism that the Fed is strangling growth to save face.
Global Ripples, Local Stakes
Whatever Powell decides, the effects will not stop at U.S. borders. A shift lower in rates would likely weigh on the dollar and give emerging markets some breathing room on debt and currency volatility. Still, Powell has made a point of grounding decisions in U.S. conditions, from prices and wages to credit spreads, not in geopolitics.
That leaves investors in the familiar position of watching Powell’s body language as much as his charts. Will he hint at a glide path toward easing, or make clear this is just a tactical trim?
The Real Question
Markets already assume a cut today. The real question is whether Powell opens the door to more and how wide. In other words, is this just a nod to progress on inflation, or the first turn in a broader pivot?
By 2:30 p.m., traders will have their answer. Until then, risk is priced cautiously, and money managers are waiting with the same anticipation as founders on earnings night, not for what is already in the books but for the guidance.
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A Wall Street veteran turned investigative journalist, Marcus brings over two decades of financial insight into boardrooms, IPOs, corporate chess games, and economic undercurrents. Known for asking uncomfortable questions in comfortable suits.
