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Washington, July 1 EST: The labor market, it seems, isn’t quite sure what it wants.
In May, U.S. job openings shot up by 374,000, reaching 7.769 million, the highest since last fall. That surprised economists who were expecting a pullback—not a jump. But before you call it a hiring boom, take a look at the rest of the numbers.
Hiring actually fell—down 112,000 to 5.5 million. Layoffs dipped too, which might sound like good news, but mostly just means employers are holding their ground. They’re not hiring fast, not firing fast. Just… waiting.
It’s the second month in a row job openings have climbed, something we haven’t seen since early 2022. Back then, the story was one of aggressive post-pandemic recovery. This time, it feels more cautious, more conditional. Businesses are advertising roles, but they’re not racing to fill them.
Postings Aren’t Promises
A lot of these new openings are in leisure and hospitality, which added over 300,000 roles—think restaurants, hotels, and venues. Finance and insurance tacked on another 91,000, with healthcare, transport, and warehousing all adding tens of thousands more.
Meanwhile, the federal government dropped 39,000 listings, likely a reflection of the hiring freeze that’s been quietly squeezing agencies for months. That’s more than a bureaucratic footnote—it’s a chunk of demand drying up.
But here’s the thing: openings aren’t hires. Posting a job is a gesture; it costs nothing, commits to nothing. Right now, a lot of companies seem to be hedging—keeping their hiring doors open just wide enough in case demand bounces back or their competitors move first.
As Hiring Lab put it: this isn’t a market making big bets—it’s one choosing “action over indecision.”
One Stat, Two Stories
The job-openings-to-unemployed ratio rose slightly to 1.07 in May. That’s the number that gets tossed around in Fed meetings and analyst notes. On paper, it says there are more jobs than people looking. In practice, it doesn’t always mean those jobs are real options—or that workers want them.
It’s a useful stat, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Especially when the actual hiring rate is slipping, and employers are quietly freezing headcounts or stretching out their timelines.
Wall Street Blinks, Bonds React
Markets didn’t panic—but they noticed. Treasury yields inched up, particularly on the long end. The labor market, while not overheated, isn’t cooling fast enough to give the Fed cover to cut rates soon. Chair Jerome Powell said this week the Fed plans to “wait and learn more.” That’s central bank speak for: “Not yet.”
Rate cuts? Maybe September. But don’t bet the house on it. If anything, the window is slipping closer to the election.
Eyes on Friday
This week’s big moment will be Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. That one carries more political and market weight. If job creation slows again, it’ll reinforce what May’s numbers are already whispering: employers are uneasy, demand’s softening, and we’re in a labor market that’s drifting—not driving.
It’s not bad news. But it’s not momentum either. The wheels are turning slower, and nobody wants to be the first to hit the brakes—or the gas.
Call it a stall. A wait-and-see market that’s not quite ready to say what comes next.
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