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New York, June 27 EST: Wall Street ended the week with a pair of record closes—S&P 500 at 6,178.80, Nasdaq at 20,299.72—driven by a market that sees the Fed loosening, trade tensions easing, and Big Tech still delivering.
It wasn’t a euphoric rally. It was measured, deliberate, and rooted in a belief that the worst-case scenarios—sticky inflation, aggressive central bank policy, global conflict—are beginning to fade.
SPY and QQQ Show Real Money’s Hand
Volume told the story. SPY, the ETF tracking the S&P 500, traded over 85 million shares, closing just below its high at $614.91. QQQ, the Nasdaq-100 tracker, followed suit with more than 56 million shares moving, ending the day at $548.09.
These are the funds institutions use when they want broad exposure fast. The flows suggest this was not retail-driven froth, but deep-pocketed reallocation.
Fed Dialing Back the Rhetoric
The trigger came from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, whose comments this week signaled that policymakers are watching the same data as everyone else. May’s soft consumer spending numbers didn’t shock the market—but they did give the Fed cover.
Traders have taken the hint. The probability of a rate cut by September is now priced at 72%. A July move still looks unlikely, but no longer unthinkable.
Trade and Geopolitical Risks Cool Off
Markets also caught a break on two fronts: trade and geopolitics.
A rare-earths export deal between Washington and Beijing eased a months-long stalemate. It’s not a full reset, but it gives both sides something to point to.
Meanwhile, news of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran—a flashpoint that had shadowed energy markets and risk assets for months—landed quietly but firmly on trading desks. With no new crises to digest, investors felt safe adding exposure.
Winners and Warnings
The day’s top mover was Nike, which jumped nearly 16% after offering forward guidance that caught analysts off guard. That lift spilled into the broader consumer discretionary sector.
Tech names again did the heavy lifting—Nvidia +1.8%, Amazon +1.1%, Apple +0.2%—but the rally was broader than the headlines suggest: 10 of 11 S&P sectors closed green, and more stocks hit new highs than lows for the first time in weeks.
Still, the rally isn’t bulletproof. Growth is concentrated in the same names that have been driving the market all year. That narrow leadership won’t last forever.
All Eyes on Jobs and Earnings
What happens next hinges on the June jobs report and Q2 earnings season. If hiring slows without collapsing, and if tech giants meet or beat guidance, this rally has room. If either misses, it could be a short-lived high.
Right now, the market’s call is clear: the Fed is coming around, global risk is down, and the path of least resistance is up. It’s not a victory lap, but it’s the first clean stride markets have taken in a while.
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