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What started as one of the most celebrated partnerships in tech now looks increasingly like a power struggle over control, capital, and the future of artificial intelligence.
Microsoft, after investing more than $13 billion into OpenAI, is now threatening to walk away from a deal to expand its stake in the company, according to sources familiar with ongoing negotiations, as first reported by the Financial Times. The core issue: Microsoft wants a 20% to 49% equity share, and OpenAI isn’t biting.
Instead, Microsoft may simply stick with the current commercial contract, which runs through 2030. That agreement grants Microsoft exclusive rights to commercialize OpenAI’s models through Azure—a deal many inside Redmond believe is already plenty valuable.
Leverage on Both Sides
This isn’t a routine dispute over valuation. It’s a referendum on the shape of the modern AI economy.
Microsoft, now a dominant player in enterprise AI, helped fund and scale OpenAI’s technology from research lab to market leader. In return, it got priority access to some of the most powerful models in the industry. But now, OpenAI is looking to restructure—moving from a capped-profit nonprofit to a fully for-profit entity. That conversion can’t happen without Microsoft’s approval, and the clock is ticking.
The deadline: December 31, 2025. If Microsoft says no, OpenAI could lose billions in fresh funding, including a reported $30 billion SoftBank-led round.
Signs of Friction
The tone has shifted behind the scenes. Sources told Axios that OpenAI is even considering filing antitrust complaints against Microsoft, a move insiders call the “nuclear option.” While it hasn’t been filed yet, the mere fact it’s on the table suggests a level of tension that’s hard to ignore.
And Microsoft appears to be preparing for a future with—or without—OpenAI. The company is already integrating third-party models like Elon Musk’s xAI Grok into its Azure platform, signaling it doesn’t want to be tethered to a single partner.
This isn’t a breakup, at least not yet. But it’s no longer a cozy alliance either.
What the Market Should Watch
There’s a lot riding on how this plays out. If Microsoft walks, OpenAI’s valuation could take a hit—and its fundraising ability might dry up quickly. At the same time, Microsoft losing early access to GPT iterations could weaken its AI product lead, especially in high-margin enterprise tools.
Then there’s the regulatory shadow. Attorneys general in Delaware and California are already looking at OpenAI’s hybrid nonprofit-governance model. Any corporate restructuring or legal battle could draw in federal antitrust scrutiny, especially if OpenAI pushes its claims against Microsoft.
In other words, this is now bigger than just two companies. It’s a fight over who controls the infrastructure layer of artificial intelligence—and whether those decisions are made through partnership, pressure, or lawyers.
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