Washington, June 29 EST: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has scored the Senate’s version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill”—the centerpiece of Donald Trump’s economic agenda—and found that it would add $3.3 trillion to the national deficit over the next decade. That’s a full trillion dollars more than the House version passed last month.
It’s the kind of estimate that, in another political era, might have derailed a bill. But this is not that era.
Budget Politics by Another Name
Instead, Republican leadership is leaning on an old playbook—arguing that the CBO’s math doesn’t reflect “reality.” What they mean is: the CBO used a “current law” baseline, assuming the Trump tax cuts expire in 2025, per statute. GOP senators, led by Finance Committee Chair John Thune, claim the bill merely locks in what everyone already expects—that those cuts will be extended regardless. Using that lens, they argue, the bill saves $500 billion over a decade.
This logic is well-worn in Washington. It also obscures the basic fact that permanent tax cuts without spending offsets cost money, even if lawmakers pretend the expiration was never real.
Budget analysts have heard it all before. So have Democrats, who immediately seized on the CBO’s projection to argue that the bill fails both the math test and the reconciliation test. Under the Byrd Rule, reconciliation bills can’t add to the long-term deficit. That rule has sunk provisions before, and could do so again here—if Senate rules are followed to the letter.
Which, these days, is no sure thing.
GOP Unity with Hairline Cracks
The political stakes are high, and Republican leadership knows it. Trump has made clear he wants the bill signed by July 4—a date that serves both symbolic and campaign utility.
But behind the scenes, fractures are emerging. Sen. Rand Paul blasted the proposal for deepening the deficit while expanding federal scope. Sen. Thom Tillis, who has already announced he won’t seek reelection, voted no and warned that the bill commits the party to a “fiscally unsustainable path.” Both are reminders that not all Republicans are marching in lockstep—and that fiscal conservatism, though diminished, isn’t extinct.
Still, the GOP cleared a 51–49 procedural hurdle Friday, narrowly advancing the bill to formal debate. That margin doesn’t leave much room for error—especially if the Byrd Rule trims any more provisions or moderate Republicans flinch at the final draft.
A Legislative Battering Ram
Substantively, the bill is a maximalist rewrite of federal tax and spending priorities. It extends roughly $3.8 trillion in tax cuts, including corporate and upper-income benefits. It shrinks Medicaid and SNAP, tightens eligibility, expands fossil fuel subsidies, and strips states of authority to regulate AI for the next decade.
It also leaves 11.8 million more Americans without health coverage by 2034, the CBO warns—an increase over the House bill’s estimate. That’s not a rounding error. That’s a signal.
Democrats responded to the GOP’s sprint by forcing a 12-hour reading of the bill on the Senate floor—less about delay than exposure. Their goal: drag the contents of the 940-page bill into public view, clause by clause, before the July vote window slams shut.
History Doesn’t Forget Numbers Like These
In policy circles, the phrase “score the bill” isn’t just about math—it’s about impact. A trillion-dollar delta between House and Senate versions isn’t a footnote. It’s a warning shot.
Republicans argue the future will look different once growth kicks in and tax certainty spurs investment. Maybe. But that was the pitch in 2001. And again in 2017. The long-term impact of both efforts—record deficits and weakened revenue streams—offers a cautionary tale, even if no one inside the Capitol wants to hear it this week.
For now, the Senate is headed for a high-speed collision between fiscal arithmetic and political necessity. One of those always wins. But not without consequences.
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A political science PhD who jumped the academic ship to cover real-time governance, Olivia is the East Coast's sharpest watchdog. She dissects power plays in Trenton and D.C. without bias or apology.
