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Washington, July 3 EST: It passed by four votes—just enough to get it through, but not nearly enough to suggest consensus. On Wednesday, the House of Representatives gave final approval to President Donald Trump’s sweeping $4.5 trillion tax-and-spending package, delivering a bill that reshapes federal priorities while pushing the national debt toward unprecedented levels.
The legislation, formally known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, now heads to Trump’s desk, where he’s scheduled to sign it on Independence Day at 5 p.m. ET, an image-heavy flourish the White House hopes will cement the bill as a legacy marker.
But beneath the fireworks and flags is a measure that blends fiscal aggression with political muscle, combining permanent tax relief for corporations and high earners with deep cuts to health and climate programs—and a debt ceiling hike large enough to paper over the contradictions, for now.
A Budget, a Bet, and a Warning
The numbers are blunt: $3.3 to $3.9 trillion in new debt over the next decade, a deficit that could exceed 7% of GDP, and a national debt load rising past 120% of GDP by 2026. Those figures would have been political poison a generation ago. Today, they’re waved through, justified by the promise of growth and the blunt force of party-line power.
For Trump, this is the budgetary embodiment of his second-term doctrine: tax relief for business, visible spending on border and defense, and slashed federal support for what his advisers often deride as “legacy entitlements.” The political calculus is simple: reward the base, punish the bureaucracy, and dare Democrats to try and reverse it.
Jeffries Uses Time, Not Votes
Democrats were never going to stop the bill. They didn’t have the numbers. What they had instead was time—and Hakeem Jeffries used it.
The House Minority Leader invoked the “magic minute” rule to deliver a record-setting 8-hour, 44-minute speech, not to stall the inevitable but to carve it into the public record. He laid out the case not as policy critique, but as moral opposition: stories of sick children losing Medicaid, seniors cut off from energy aid, families priced out of basic care.
“It is a crime scene,” Jeffries said on the floor. He wasn’t looking to win a vote. He was writing the opening chapter of the opposition campaign.
Party-Line and Nothing More
The final vote was 218–214. Two Republicans—Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania—joined Democrats in dissent. Their reasons diverged: Massie over debt, Fitzpatrick over social program cuts. But neither had sway over the outcome.
What’s notable is how few Republicans broke ranks. The bill had its critics in closed-door meetings. On the floor, they fell in line. That speaks less to unity and more to fear—of primaries, of Trump, of becoming the 219th vote in a 218-vote plan.
House Speaker Mike Johnson hailed the passage as “a realignment of American priorities.” Critics would call it something else: a partisan hardening of fiscal policy, one that opens the coffers for allies while tightening them on the poor.
Markets Shrug. Economists Wince.
Wall Street’s reaction was muted—markets had priced in passage. Some analysts projected a 25 to 50 basis point bump in short-term GDP, driven by defense contracts and tax relief. But longer-term concerns linger: inflationary pressures, rising yields, and the fragility of international faith in U.S. fiscal credibility.
One Fed-watcher put it this way: “The bill gives a sugar high in Q3, and a hangover by Q2 next year.”
A Fiscal Map of Trump’s America
What the bill funds is as telling as what it cuts. Border enforcement gets a major boost. So does defense, especially in tech and cyber. Programs tied to the Inflation Reduction Act, Medicaid expansion, and clean energy face attrition. The IRS survives intact, but enforcement mandates are weakened.
Trump’s advisors say this is a blueprint for “sovereign economic strength.” Detractors see a blueprint for inequality, stitched together with red ink.
Looking Ahead: The 2026 Battleground
With the vote sealed and the bill on its way to the Resolute Desk, Democrats now turn to the field. Their campaign pitch is clear: Trump and House Republicans just passed a tax bill for billionaires and paid for it with cuts to school lunches and insulin subsidies.
Republicans, for their part, will run on economic growth, border control, and “taking the boot off America’s neck.” The gap between those messages is wide—and 2026 will be the first major test of who’s listening.
But for now, the outcome is clear: Trump got his bill. And Democrats got their line in the sand.
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