Table of Contents
Washington, June 25 EST: Ten years ago, the Supreme Court declared that love is love, full stop. With Obergefell v. Hodges, same-sex marriage became the law of the land. It was a cultural turning point — and for a time, it looked like public sentiment, even within the Republican Party, might move with the tide.
That’s no longer the case.
According to a May 2025 Gallup poll, Republican support for same-sex marriage has dropped to 41%, the lowest point since the 2016 election cycle. It’s a sharp decline from the party’s 2021–2022 peak of 55%, and it comes at a moment when the country as a whole remains firmly in favor — 68% of Americans back marriage equality.
This isn’t just a statistical slip. It’s a political retrenchment.
The Culture War Comes Full Circle
This drop in support isn’t happening in a vacuum. It’s part of a broader conservative revival — a reactionary current that’s pulled the GOP back toward the battles of the early 2000s. The kind of social politics that fueled bans on gay marriage in 31 states between 1998 and 2012 is alive again, but repackaged for 2025.
Groups like MassResistance, once relegated to the fringes, are now drafting legislation and introducing statehouse resolutions in Idaho, Michigan, and the Dakotas. These efforts are symbolic — for now. But they’re not benign. They test the waters for more substantive challenges to Obergefell, with the long game being a return to state-level control over marriage.
And it’s working. Republican lawmakers who once stayed silent on marriage equality are speaking up — not in defense of rights, but in defense of “tradition.”
The GOP’s Generational Divide — And Its Limits
There’s a striking divide beneath the party’s numbers: nearly 60% of Republicans under 50 support same-sex marriage. Among those over 50? Just 36%.
This isn’t just age; it’s architecture. The Republican Party’s institutional power still runs through its older guard — from Senate committee chairs to influential PAC donors and religious coalitions. The younger base is louder on social media, but the legislative pen still belongs to their elders.
That’s how the GOP winds up in this paradox: more Americans support LGBTQ+ rights than ever, and yet the party is drifting backward, pulled by the gravitational force of its own primary politics.
“This isn’t a shift in moral values,” said one senior GOP aide, speaking off the record. “It’s a shift in electoral math. The loudest voters win the day — and they’re not moderates.”
Lawmakers Feel the Pressure
The retreat isn’t just rhetorical. Sen. James Lankford and others have re-upped their opposition to the 2022 Respect for Marriage Act, which codified federal recognition of same-sex and interracial marriages.
Even Sen. John Cornyn, a veteran legislator with an eye on history, has publicly criticized Obergefell, framing it as federal overreach. He’s far from alone. These statements aren’t theoretical. They are signals — to donors, to religious institutions, to grassroots groups. They mark a potential pivot point, or at least the will to reopen a legal fight many thought was settled.
Of course, there are exceptions. Rep. Lee Zeldin and a handful of GOP colleagues broke ranks to support marriage protections. But they’re swimming against the current — and they know it.
The Supreme Court’s Shadow Looms
With Dobbs v. Jackson still reverberating and the memory of Roe’s reversal fresh, few in the LGBTQ+ rights community feel fully secure. The Court’s conservative wing — especially Justices Thomas and Alito — has already telegraphed interest in revisiting Obergefell.
The legal logic used to unravel Roe rests on the same foundation as marriage equality: substantive due process. Once that’s cracked, all precedent built on it is fair game.
And while Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Kavanaugh have signaled caution, there’s no constitutional firewall if the Court’s composition — or political appetite — changes.
Respect for Marriage Act: Shield or Mirage?
The Respect for Marriage Act was designed as a backstop. But even its authors acknowledged it was a compromise. It protects existing marriages but doesn’t guarantee states must issue new licenses if Obergefell falls.
For now, it holds. But laws, unlike rights, are only as strong as the majorities that support them. If Republican sentiment continues to harden — and if the GOP regains control of both chambers in 2026 — that legislative shield could become paper-thin.
Public Opinion: A Bulwark, But Not a Guarantee
Support for marriage equality remains resilient, even in red states. The public has moved on — or so it thought. But the political system hasn’t.
Activists like Sarah Kate Ellis, president of GLAAD, warn that the gap between voter sentiment and legislative action is growing. “We’re not fighting for hearts and minds anymore,” she said recently. “We’re fighting to protect the laws that reflect them.”
The irony is stark: ten years after Obergefell, LGBTQ+ Americans have broad cultural acceptance and bipartisan corporate support — but face the most organized political pushback since before the decision.
The right to marry may feel permanent to most Americans. But history, especially American legal history, tells a different story. Rights are never self-sustaining. They depend on vigilance — and, sometimes, defiance.
New Jersey Times Is Your Source: The Latest In Politics, Entertainment, Business, Breaking News, And Other News. Please Follow Us On Facebook, Instagram, And Twitter To Receive Instantaneous Updates. Also Do Checkout Our Telegram Channel @Njtdotcom For Latest Updates.
