July 8 EST: SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI) just did something it hasn’t managed since going public: close above $20. Shares finished Tuesday at $20.66, up $1.42 on the day, with more than 24 million shares traded.
That kind of move typically smells like retail chasing momentum. But in SoFi’s case, there’s more going on than just Reddit hype or TikTok charts. This run is powered by something the fintech space often struggles to deliver—profitability.
This Isn’t Meme Euphoria — It’s Earnings
SoFi’s first-quarter numbers surprised even seasoned fintech watchers. Revenue grew 33% year-over-year to $771 million, but more important was what dropped to the bottom line: a $71 million GAAP profit and a healthy $210 million in adjusted EBITDA.
Put simply, SoFi is acting more like a bank—and less like a startup. It’s issuing loans, collecting interest, and cross-selling customers across products, just as the old playbook says.
The customer growth also deserves a look. SoFi added 800,000 new members last quarter, taking its total base to nearly 11 million. Product use is also climbing—up 34% year-over-year—as members lean into its all-in-one model for borrowing, spending, and investing.
Where’s the money coming from? Lending is still the engine, growing 27–30%, but fee-driven businesses like SoFi Invest and Relay are scaling faster—up 67% last quarter. Meanwhile, its Galileo and Technisys platforms, which power third-party financial services, grew 66%, a clear sign the infrastructure business is pulling its weight.
Valuation: Rich, But Not Untethered
SoFi raised its full-year revenue guidance to $3.235 to $3.31 billion, up from previous estimates. If it hits those targets, it’ll notch 24–27% annual revenue growth for the year.
That’s not a moonshot forecast—it’s based on the last few quarters’ trajectory. Analysts now expect around $0.06 in EPS for Q2, which would reinforce the idea that the company has moved beyond burning cash to fund growth.
On valuation, SoFi still trades ahead of legacy lenders. But that’s expected. Fintech investors are paying for user growth, software leverage, and distribution scale. Seeking Alpha analysts project 15–18% annualized returns through 2033, assuming current margins hold and earnings compound.
Still, ChartMill flags fundamentals like return on assets and debt load as weak points. SoFi isn’t out of the woods yet—just finally playing on solid ground.
The Technical Pop Is Real, But So Are the Risks
Tuesday’s close marks a new post-IPO high, clearing resistance that’s held since 2021. That makes this a breakout, technically speaking.
But it’s a crowded trade. Momentum screens are lighting up, and RSI indicators show the stock is nearing overbought levels. Validea’s momentum model ranks the stock at 83%, putting it squarely on traders’ radars.
What’s not clear is whether institutions are adding here or just letting retail do the heavy lifting. For long-term holders, that matters. Because if Q2 doesn’t show another clean earnings beat, this run could reverse just as fast.
What Wall Street’s Watching Next
Q2 earnings land on July 29. SoFi needs to show that Q1 wasn’t a fluke—and that net income can become the norm. The company’s mix of personal loans, home lending, and student refinancing makes it sensitive to rate trends and credit risk.
Analysts will be looking for:
- Sustained EBITDA margins north of 25%
- Continued member and product growth above 30%
- Clarity on how loan performance is holding up amid economic softening
If those numbers hold, expect price targets to tick higher. If not, SoFi risks slipping back into the “wait-and-see” bucket.
Bottom Line: A Fintech That’s Finally Acting Like a Business
SoFi isn’t betting on crypto, hype, or moonshot tech. It’s building a vertically integrated finance business that looks a lot like a modern bank—with a cleaner app and a younger customer base.
For once, the numbers back the narrative. But in this market, one clean quarter doesn’t guarantee a seat at the grown-ups’ table. Earnings season will decide whether SoFi has finally crossed the threshold—from promising upstart to durable, profitable enterprise.
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A Wall Street veteran turned investigative journalist, Marcus brings over two decades of financial insight into boardrooms, IPOs, corporate chess games, and economic undercurrents. Known for asking uncomfortable questions in comfortable suits.
