Washington, August 15 EST: At a celebratory event marking Social Security’s 90th anniversary, President Donald Trump told a packed Oval Office that his administration had “fixed” the program a sweeping claim that, under closer inspection, runs up against stubborn fiscal realities and disputed policy interpretations.
Service Gains, But Transparency Questions
Trump opened his remarks by touting a list of customer service upgrades at the Social Security Administration (SSA), crediting them as proof his team had “strengthened” the program. According to an SSA press release, the agency has indeed posted improvements:
- Average wait times on the national 800-number have fallen from roughly 30 minutes to single digits.
- Field office visits now move 30% faster.
- The disability claims backlog has shrunk by 26%.
- Digital services like the “My Social Security” portal have expanded, allowing more self-service transactions.
However, as reported by The Washington Post, the SSA also stopped publishing some key performance metrics, making it harder for outside observers to verify trends. Critics warn that shorter lobby waits may mask longer delays for scheduled appointments in some cases stretching into months.
The Tax Claim That Wasn’t
Trump’s second headline-grabbing assertion that his One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) “eliminated” taxes on Social Security benefits drew immediate pushback from economists and policy analysts.
The OBBB, signed earlier this year, provides a temporary $6,000 deduction for seniors, phasing out at higher income levels. The Council of Economic Quality estimates the change will lift the share of seniors who pay no federal taxes on their benefits from 64% to 88%.
But that is not the same as erasing the tax altogether. Howard Gleckman of the Tax Policy Center called Trump’s framing “just wrong,” pointing out the deduction applies to all income, not solely Social Security benefits. The law also expires in a few years unless renewed by Congress.
Insolvency Still Looms
Trump’s third claim that his administration solved the program’s looming insolvency crisis faces perhaps the stiffest challenge from the numbers.
The Social Security Board of Trustees projects the trust fund will be depleted by 2033, after which incoming payroll taxes would cover only about 77% of scheduled benefits. Other estimates put the date at 2034.
Far from improving the outlook, some policies may be making it worse. The Penn Wharton Budget Model calculates that Trump’s expanded deportation agenda could strip about $133 billion in payroll tax contributions over the next decade, since undocumented immigrants pay into the system without drawing benefits.
Meanwhile, MarketWatch reports the program’s long-term funding shortfall has nearly doubled since 2016, rising from $11.8 trillion to $25.1 trillion. Analysts there found no evidence that Trump has advanced a structural fix, such as revenue increases or benefit formula changes, that would close the gap.
A Popular Program in Peril
The 90th anniversary backdrop was politically symbolic. Social Security remains among the most popular federal programs, with overwhelming public resistance to benefit cuts. Still, maintaining that status quo will require political decisions that neither party has yet embraced whether that means raising taxes, trimming benefits, or some mix of the two.
For now, Trump’s record on the issue presents a split screen: tangible customer service gains under his SSA commissioner, paired with fiscal projections that remain as dire and in some respects, more urgent than before he took office.
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