July 9 EST: Nvidia Corp. has now done what no other public company ever has: crossed the $4 trillion valuation line. This isn’t a case of speculative heat or meme-stock mania. It’s the result of a company delivering staggering numbers quarter after quarter—and showing no signs of letting up.
Shares of NVDA were trading at $163.31 late Wednesday, with a modest intraday gain, and more than 59 million shares traded. The stock touched a high of $164.37, shrugging off renewed tariff threats and showing again how little macro posturing seems to shake long-term sentiment around the company.
This Isn’t Momentum — It’s Monopoly
At this point, Nvidia isn’t just leading the AI race—it’s writing the rulebook. The company’s graphics processors have become the de facto standard for every major AI project on the planet. Whether it’s OpenAI, Amazon, or Google, the foundational infrastructure runs on Nvidia silicon.
What’s more, the stock’s run isn’t built on soft optimism. Since ChatGPT launched in late 2022, Nvidia has posted gains of over 900%. Its Q1 revenue hit $44.1 billion, up 69% year-over-year, making it one of the few tech giants actually backing up valuation with earnings. And with gross margins near 78%, Nvidia isn’t just selling chips—it’s printing cash.
One analyst put it bluntly: “This is Apple in 2011, with a monopoly on what everyone suddenly needs.”
Geopolitics? Noise, Not Signal
The political backdrop hasn’t been quiet. Over the weekend, Donald Trump floated new tariffs on semiconductors if he returns to office. Normally, that would rattle tech. Nvidia gained 2.2%.
That tells you everything about investor expectations. The assumption is simple: even if tariffs bite, Nvidia’s pricing power—and demand—can absorb the hit. It also helps that the company is aggressively diversifying its customer base. According to Business Insider, Nvidia has inked partnerships across the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, which could serve as a hedge against further restrictions on sales to China.
This isn’t just strategic hedging—it’s corporate risk management in action.
Wall Street’s New Benchmark
With a market cap north of $4 trillion, Nvidia has overtaken Apple, Microsoft, and Saudi Aramco—all companies that once looked immovable. Its weight inside the S&P 500 and Nasdaq is now so large that a bad quarter could shift the entire index. But as of now, that’s not what anyone is pricing in.
Loop Capital’s Ananda Baruah recently set a $250 price target, which would imply a valuation of more than $6 trillion. Lofty? Sure. But consider that Nvidia’s growth rate and cash generation already put it on pace to outstrip most of the S&P by a factor of 10.
Still, risks remain. Supply chains are fragile. Export controls could tighten. And if competitors like AMD or Intel ever manage to close the performance gap, margins could compress. But those are long shots for now.
The Real Economy Meets the AI Cycle
Nvidia’s run-up hasn’t just reshaped tech—it’s forcing institutional investors to rethink portfolio construction. If the old FAANG framework drove the last bull cycle, NVDA is fast becoming the anchor of the next one.
But the bigger story is what this valuation implies: that AI is no longer a bet. It’s a line item in budgets from Fortune 500 firms to defense contractors to startups in Tel Aviv and Bengaluru.
If Nvidia’s numbers hold through Q2 earnings, we’re no longer in a speculative phase. We’re in deployment. The tools are built. The chips are ordered. And Nvidia, for now, owns the bottleneck.
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A Wall Street veteran turned investigative journalist, Marcus brings over two decades of financial insight into boardrooms, IPOs, corporate chess games, and economic undercurrents. Known for asking uncomfortable questions in comfortable suits.
