Wall Street Stalls as Nasdaq Hits Record on Ceasefire Hopes, Powell Stays Cautious
Tech climbs and oil cools as Middle East tension eases, but the Fed won’t budge on rates
New York, June 25 EST: Wall Street spent Tuesday stuck between two crosswinds: a cooling Middle East and a Federal Reserve that refuses to blink. The result? A market that looked alive but didn’t move with conviction.
The Nasdaq 100 touched a fresh intraday record, nudged higher by tech names riding optimism that Israel and Iran might finally be done trading blows — for now. But that momentum didn’t spill over. The S&P 500 barely budged, and the Dow slipped 0.25%, dragged by industrials and cautious money pulling back from defensive plays.
Ceasefire Settles Nerves, For Now
The real mover behind the day’s action wasn’t earnings or inflation—it was diplomacy. A ceasefire between Israel and Iran, still too fresh to trust but long enough to price in, cooled global oil markets. That took some of the pressure off energy costs, and investors took it as permission to rotate into risk.
Tech and energy stocks rallied. Not because of fresh fundamentals, but because falling oil and calmer headlines let money flow back into growth. Micron rose ahead of earnings. Nvidia, still the street’s AI sweetheart, kept pulling retail and institutional buyers alike.
But it wasn’t a rally so much as a reshuffling. Utilities and real estate gave up ground, a sign that cautious money is starting to test the waters again.
Powell Isn’t Playing the Market’s Game
Then came the dose of reality from Jerome Powell. On his second day in front of Congress, the Fed chair delivered what investors have heard before: rate cuts aren’t coming until inflation behaves—and that’s not today.
Yes, the Fed sees signs of cooling. And yes, Trump’s proposed tariffs might cause a temporary price bump. But Powell isn’t building policy off “might.” As he told lawmakers, the central bank is “not confident” inflation is on a path down that would justify easing.
That matters more than markets want to admit. Because what’s at stake now isn’t just whether rates fall this summer or fall—it’s whether they fall at all before the next election.
Futures trading now shows a 70% chance of a 25-point cut in September. But the July odds have slipped to 25%, and that’s generous.
Tariffs, Inflation, and the 2019 Flashbacks
What’s gumming up the Fed’s confidence? Start with Trump’s trade talk. His tariff proposals, particularly targeting China, have stirred old ghosts of the 2019 trade war: disrupted supply chains, uneven input costs, pricing volatility.
Powell didn’t take the bait to criticize the policy. But he made one thing clear: the Fed doesn’t know how those tariffs will hit consumer prices, and it’s not going to guess.
That uncertainty is enough to keep policymakers on pause—and enough to keep traders from loading up on rate-sensitive assets just yet.
Company Notes: Weak Deliveries, Softer Forecasts
Corporate news gave the market little to cheer about. Tesla fell over 4%, dragged down by weak delivery numbers out of Europe. In Germany and the U.K., the automaker continues to lose ground, as competitors roll out EVs with more competitive pricing and fresher tech.
FedEx also dropped about 3% after guiding to softer profits. That’s a concern—not just for shareholders, but as a broader read on B2B shipping demand. When FedEx says volumes are light, it often means business spending is, too.
General Mills was mixed. Its volumes dipped, but price increases helped pad the numbers. Still, it wasn’t enough to spark much excitement.
The Takeaway: Market Wants A Reason to Move
Right now, Wall Street feels like it’s watching a poker game where the players won’t bet. Powell isn’t blinking. The ceasefire might hold, but geopolitical risk hasn’t vanished. And corporate earnings are throwing off more smoke than signal.
Unless the next few weeks bring surprisingly soft inflation, a decisive shift in the Fed’s tone, or another geopolitical shock, markets are likely to drift. Investors are rotating, not rallying.
The Nasdaq’s highs may make the headlines—but under the hood, traders are still driving with one foot on the brake.
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A Wall Street veteran turned investigative journalist, Marcus brings over two decades of financial insight into boardrooms, IPOs, corporate chess games, and economic undercurrents. Known for asking uncomfortable questions in comfortable suits.
